[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jan 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 26 10:30:08 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jan             27 Jan             28 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              76/14              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 25 January, with 
few B-class flares all from active sunspot region AR2799. AR2799 
is currently located near the west limb and will rotate to the 
far-side of the sun on UT day 27 January.  There are two other 
numbered regions on the visible solar disc, AR2798 and AR2797. 
Both these regions are currently stable. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low over the next three UT days, 26 to 28 January. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available satellite 
images. On 25 January, the solar wind speed increased gradually 
from 400 km/s to 540 km/s, in response to the arrival of high 
speed streams from a small equatorial coronal hole. The total 
IMF (Bt) peaked to 12 nT at 25/0740 UT and thereafter remained 
mostly steady near 10 nT. The Bz range was +8/-8 nT, with two 
significant periods of southward Bz; from 25/0400 UT to 25/0900 
UT and from 25/1900 UT to time of writing this report.   The 
solar wind speed is expected to remain at these mildly elevated 
levels today, UT day 26 January. The solar wind speed is expected 
to wane from UT day 27 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region      15   22432334
      Cocos Island        10   21331233
      Darwin              10   22332223
      Townsville          13   22432333
      Learmonth           17   32332335
      Alice Springs       12   21432233
      Gingin              21   32442345
      Canberra            16   21442334
      Hobart              16   22442334    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    20   22454423
      Casey               37   45653335
      Mawson              53   23543458

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1110 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jan     5    Quiet
28 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 25 January. Mostly quiet to 
minor storms levels were observed in the Antarctic region. These 
disturbed periods were in response to the arrival of the coronal 
hole effect.  Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly 
quiet to unsettled on UT day 26 January in response to the coronal 
hole effect. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from UT day 
27 January.  

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: On UT day 25 January, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values on UT days 26 to 28 January.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Jan    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      11
Jan      9
Feb      11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values
27 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values
28 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 25 January, MUFs in the Australian region 
were near predicted monthly levels. Sporadic E was observed, 
strong at times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to 
be near predicted monthly values on 26 to 28 January. Sporadic 
E occurrences are likely.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 372 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:    83500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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