[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jan 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 28 10:30:08 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jan             29 Jan             30 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    76/14              76/14              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 27 January with 
no flares. AR2799 is currently located behind the west limb. There 
are three numbered regions on the visible solar disc, AR2797, 
AR2798 and AR2800. Over the next three UT days, 28 to 30 January, 
solar activity is expected to be very low with a little chance 
of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the 
available satellite images. On 27 January, the solar wind speed 
was in the range 520-570 km/s, currently near 530-540 km/s. This 
enhancement is in response to high speed streams from a coronal 
hole. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 3-6 nT and the Bz 
range was +4/-5 nT without significant periods of southward Bz. 
The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated on 28 January, 
decreasing gradually to its nominal levels as the coronal hole 
effects wane.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22222312
      Cocos Island         4   11121202
      Darwin               5   12222211
      Townsville           7   22222312
      Learmonth            6   22122302
      Alice Springs        5   12122212
      Gingin               7   21123312
      Canberra             6   12222212
      Hobart               7   22222312    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     9   22233311
      Casey               25   45533324
      Mawson              28   35433535

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   3411 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jan     7    Quiet
30 Jan     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 27 January. Quiet to minor 
storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region. These disturbed 
periods were due to coronal hole effects. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 28 January and 
mostly quiet on 29-30 January.  

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: On UT day 27 January, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values, with depressed conditions in the high latitude 
regions. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values on UT days 28 to 30 January.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Jan     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
    Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      11
Jan      9
Feb      11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
29 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
30 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 27 January, MUFs in the Australian region 
were near predicted monthly levels. Sporadic E was observed, 
strong at times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to 
be near predicted monthly values on 28 to 30 January. Sporadic 
E occurrences are likely.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 540 km/sec  Density:    7.2 p/cc  Temp:   400000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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