[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jan 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 23 10:30:07 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jan             24 Jan             25 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 22 January. There 
are three numbered regions on the visible solar disc. AR2797 
appears stable. AR2798 appears to be decaying. A new active region, 
AR2799, developed in the northwest quadrant. Solar activity is 
expected to be very low to low over the next three UT days, 23 
to 25 January. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
satellite images. On 22 January, the solar wind speed was below 
360 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 6 nT and the Bz range 
was +/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near 
nominal levels on 23 to 25 January. The solar wind speed may 
become mildly elevated late on 24 January due to coronal hole 
effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12101211
      Cocos Island         2   02111110
      Darwin               3   12101211
      Townsville           5   12212211
      Learmonth            4   02112211
      Alice Springs        4   12201211
      Gingin               2   01101211
      Canberra             3   11101211
      Hobart               2   01101201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   00100100
      Casey                7   13311222
      Mawson               7   31002142

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jan     7    Quiet
24 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 22 January. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels 
were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be mostly quiet on 23 to 25 January. Conditions 
may become mildly disturbed late on 24 January and on 25 January 
due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: On UT day 22 January, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with some periods of moderate depressions. MUFs 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT 
days 23 to 25 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jan    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      11
Jan      9
Feb      11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 22 January, MUFs in the Australian region 
were near predicted monthly levels with moderate daytime depressions 
in the Northern Australian region. Sporadic E was observed, strong 
at times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values on 23 to 25 January. Sporadic E occurrences 
are likely.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 311 km/sec  Density:   10.3 p/cc  Temp:    14800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list