[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jan 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 22 10:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 21 January. AR2798
(S17E32) appears to be decaying. AR2797 (S19E23) appears stable.
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low over the next
three UT days, 22 to 24 January. The westward CME first observed
in Stereo A images on 20 January is not expected to be geoeffective.
On 21 January, the solar wind speed was below 350 km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) peaked at 4 nT and the Bz range was +/-2 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to be near nominal levels on 22 to 24
January. The solar wind speed may become mildly elevated late
on 24 January due to coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 2 11110101
Townsville 2 11110111
Learmonth 2 11120101
Alice Springs 0 00010001
Gingin 1 11010001
Canberra 1 01010001
Hobart 2 12110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 01000001
Casey 7 34220101
Mawson 7 22120214
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 0021 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jan 7 Quiet
24 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 21 January. Quiet to active levels were observed
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly quiet. Conditions may become mildly disturbed late
on 24 January due to coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 21 January, MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values with some periods of moderate depressions. MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT
days 22 to 24 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jan 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 11
Jan 9
Feb 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 21 January, MUFs in the Australian region
were near predicted monthly levels with moderate night time depressions
at Darwin and Townsville. Sporadic E was observed, strong at
times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near
predicted monthly values on 22 to 24 January. Sporadic E occurrences
are likely.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 9.9 p/cc Temp: 38700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list