[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jan 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 21 10:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 20 January, with one
C1.4 flare at 1253 UT from new AR2798 (S17E46). AR2797 (S19E37)
appears stable. Solar activity is expected to be very low to
low over the next three UT days, 21 to 23 January. A westward
CME was observed in Stereo A images and further analysis is required
to determine if it is likely to be geoeffective. On 20 January,
the solar wind speed peaked at 363 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked
at 8 nT and the Bz range was +5/-7 nT. The solar wind speed may
become elevated on 21 to 22 January due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 11223221
Cocos Island 4 11222210
Darwin 7 21223221
Townsville 8 21233221
Learmonth 8 21233221
Alice Springs 6 11223221
Gingin 5 11222212
Canberra 6 11223211
Hobart 6 12223111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jan :
Macquarie Island 4 01223200
Casey 15 34523211
Mawson 9 23323221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 3 2100 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled with possible isolated active
periods
22 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 20 January. Quiet to minor
storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled with possible isolated
active periods on 21 January due to coronal hole effects with
quiet to unsettled conditions on 22 and 23 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 20 January, MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values with some periods of minor depressions. MUFs are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days
21 to 22 January with the possibility of minor to mild depressions
on 21 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jan -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 11
Jan 9
Feb 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jan -10 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 20 January, MUFs in the Australian region
were near predicted monthly levels with mild afternoon and night
time depressions. Sporadic E was observed, strong at times. MUFs
in the Australian region are expected to be near predicted monthly
values on 21 to 23 January with mild to moderate depressions
on 21 January in response to expected mild geomagnetic activity.
Sporadic E occurrences are likely.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 315 km/sec Density: 11.8 p/cc Temp: 55900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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