[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jan 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 20 10:30:08 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jan             21 Jan             22 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 19 January, with one 
C1.1 flare at 1754 UT. AR2797 (S19E51) has a Cko/beta configuration 
and has developed further trailer spots. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low to low over the next three UT days, 20 to 22 January. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available satellite 
images. On 19 January, the solar wind speed peaked at 339 km/s. 
The total IMF (Bt) range was 2-9 nT and the Bz range was +5/-7 
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be elevated on 20 to 
22 January due to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21112121
      Cocos Island         3   21111020
      Darwin               4   21112021
      Townsville           4   21112121
      Learmonth            5   21122121
      Alice Springs        4   21012121
      Gingin               4   21112120
      Canberra             3   11012111
      Hobart               3   21012110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     2   11012000
      Casey               18   35532121
      Mawson              13   44222232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1100 0002     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jan    14    Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active 
                periods
21 Jan    12    Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active 
                periods
22 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 19 January. Quiet to minor 
storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled with possible isolated 
active periods on 20 and 21 January due to coronal hole effects 
with quiet to unsettled conditions on 22 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: On UT day 19 January, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with some periods of minor depressions. MUFs are 
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 
20 to 22 January with the possibility of minor to mild depressions 
on 21 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jan    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      11
Jan      9
Feb      11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
21 Jan   -10    Near predicted monthly values
22 Jan    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 19 January, MUFs in the Australian region 
were mostly near predicted monthly levels with some night time 
depressions at mid-latitudes. Sporadic E was observed, strong 
at times and mostly at mid latitudes. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be near predicted monthly values on 20 
to 22 January with mild to moderate depressions on 21 January 
in response to expected mild geomagnetic activity. Sporadic E 
occurrences are likely.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 281 km/sec  Density:   15.0 p/cc  Temp:    17000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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