[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jan 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 19 10:30:09 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jan             20 Jan             21 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    77/16              82/23              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 18 January. AR2796 
(S21W39) has decayed to plage, while new AR2797 (S23E65) has 
a Cko/beta configuration and appears stable. Solar activity is 
expected to be very low over the next three UT days, 19-21 January. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available satellite 
images. On 18 January, the solar wind speed was below 310 km/s, 
trending higher in the last few hours. The total IMF (Bt) range 
was 2-8 nT and the Bz range was +3/-6 nT. The solar wind speed 
is expected to be elevated on 19 to 21 January due to coronal 
hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11000122
      Cocos Island         2   01110021
      Darwin               3   11100122
      Townsville           5   21111222
      Learmonth            3   11000222
      Alice Springs        2   11000122
      Gingin               2   11000122
      Canberra             2   01000112
      Hobart               2   01000112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000002
      Casey                6   23211122
      Mawson              15   43211235

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0100 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jan    15    Unsettled to Active
20 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Jan    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 18 January. Quiet to minor storm levels were 
observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active 
periods on 19 to 21 January due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: On UT day 18 January, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor to mild depressions. MUFs 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT 
days 19 to 21 January with the possibility of minor to mild depressions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jan     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      11
Jan      9
Feb      11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jan     5    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jan   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%
21 Jan   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%

COMMENT: On UT day 18 January, MUFs in the Australian region 
were mostly near predicted monthly levels. Sporadic E was observed, 
strong at times and mostly at mid latitudes. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
on 19 January with mild to moderate depressions on 20 to 21 January 
in response to expected mild geomagnetic activity. Sporadic E 
occurrences are likely.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 286 km/sec  Density:   10.5 p/cc  Temp:    18200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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