[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jan 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 18 10:30:10 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 17 January and
it is expected to remain very low over the next three UT days,
18 to 20 January. There are two numbered sunspot regions on the
visible disk (2796 at S21W27 and 2797 at S23E77 at 23:00UT/17
January). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. On UT day 17 January the solar wind speed
varied from 280 km/s to 310 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied in
the range 1 to 5 nT, the north-south component of IMF (Bz) varied
between +1 nT and -4 nT, and the solar wind particle density
between 3 and 12 ppcc. The solar wind parameters are expected
to strengthen during UT day 18 January and then stay moderately
enhanced on UT days 19 and 20 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 1 11000002
Townsville 2 22000011
Alice Springs 1 11000001
Gingin 0 01000000
Canberra 0 01000001
Hobart 1 11000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 32211001
Mawson 9 24301004
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1100 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jan 10 Quiet to active
19 Jan 12 Quiet to active
20 Jan 12 Quiet to active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
regions and mostly quiet to unsettled conditions in the Antarctic
regions on UT day 17 January. Global geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels on UT days 18 to 20
January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 17 January, MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to mild depressions. MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT
days 18 to 20 January with the possibility of minor to mild depressions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jan -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 11
Jan 9
Feb 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Jan -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Jan -8 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 17 January, MUFs in the Australian region
were mostly near predicted monthly values with periods of minor
to mild depressions. Sporadic Es were observed at several Australian
sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT days 18 to 20 January with
the possibility of minor to mild depressions. Sporadic E occurrences
are expected to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 27000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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