[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jan 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 17 10:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 16 January. Solar
activity is expected to remain very low over the next three UT
days, 17 to 19 January. There is one numbered sunspot region
on the visible disk (2796 at S21W14 at 22:30UT/16 January). No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
images. On UT day 16 January the solar wind speed varied from
300 km/s to 350 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied in the range
2 to 6 nT, the north-south component of IMF (Bz) varied between
+4 nT and -3 nT, and the solar wind particle density between
3 and 14 ppcc. The solar wind parameters are expected to remain
mostly at nominal values during the first half of UT day 17 January
and then show gradual strengthening due to a coronal hole effect.
This coronal hole effect is expected to keep the solar wind stream
moderately enhanced on UT days 18 and 19 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11121011
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 4 21121111
Townsville 4 21121111
Alice Springs 3 11121111
Gingin 2 11121010
Canberra 3 11121011
Hobart 3 11121011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 11100000
Casey 8 33321111
Mawson 8 22212133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jan 8 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible
18 Jan 12 Quiet to Active
19 Jan 12 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
regions and quiet to unsettled conditions in the Antarctic regions
on UT day 16 January. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels with some possibility of isolated
active periods on UT day 17 January. Quiet to active levels of
geomagnetic activity may be expected on UT days 18 and 19 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 16 January, MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor depressions. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 17 to 19
January with the possibility of minor to mild depressions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jan -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 11
Jan 9
Feb 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jan -8 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Jan -8 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 16 January, MUFs in the Australian region
were mostly near predicted monthly values with isolated periods
of minor depressions. Sporadic Es were observed at several Australian
sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT days 17 to 19 January with
the possibility of minor to mild depressions. Sporadic E occurrences
are expected to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 302 km/sec Density: 8.9 p/cc Temp: 18200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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