[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 January 21 issued 2332 UT on 23 Jan 2021

Sun Jan 24 10:32:59 EST 2021

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan:  78/17

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jan             25 Jan             26 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 23 January. There 
are currently three numbered regions on the visible solar disc. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low over the next 
three UT days, 24 to 26 January. A CME observed late on UT day 
January 22 is being investigated to determine if it will be geoeffective. 
An update on this event will be provided later. On 23 January, 
the solar wind speed was below 400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked 
at 9 nT and the Bz range was +/-6 nT. The solar wind speed is 
expected to be mostly near nominal levels on 24 to 26 January. 
The solar wind speed may become mildly elevated late on 24 January 
due to small coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11110223
      Cocos Island         4   12100222
      Darwin               4   11010223
      Townsville           5   12110223
      Learmonth            4   21110222
      Alice Springs        4   01110223
      Gingin               4   11110123
      Canberra             3   11100113
      Hobart               4   11210113    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     1   01010002
      Casey               14   34422223
      Mawson               6   22111223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1000 0111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 23 January. Quiet to active 
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be mostly quiet on 24 to 26 January. 
Conditions may become mildly disturbed late on 24 January and 
on 25 January due to coronal hole effects. This forecast will 
change if the model results indicate that the 22 January CME 
is geoeffective.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: On UT day 23 January, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with some periods of moderate depressions in the 
low latitude regions. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values on UT days 24 to 26 January.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
23 Jan     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      11
Jan      9
Feb      11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
26 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 23 January, MUFs in the Australian region 
were near predicted monthly levels with moderate daytime depressions 
over the Cocos Island region. Sporadic E was observed, strong 
at times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values on 24 to 26 January. Sporadic E occurrences 
are likely.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 308 km/sec  Density:    9.4 p/cc  Temp:    16200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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