[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jan 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 14 10:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 74/11 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 13 January. There
are currently no active regions on the visible disc. Solar activity
is expected to remain very low over the next three UT days, 14-16
January. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. On UT day 13 January the solar wind speed
varied in the range 380-440 km/s, gradually approaching its nominal
levels. The total IMF (Bt) range was 2-6 nT and the north-south
component of IMF (Bz) varied between +4 nT and -5 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain near its nominal levels for
14-16 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11112001
Cocos Island 1 11111000
Darwin 2 11011011
Townsville 4 22112012
Learmonth 3 21012102
Alice Springs 2 11011002
Gingin 3 21112101
Canberra 1 01111001
Hobart 3 11112002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 01022001
Casey 18 45422114
Mawson 15 32212254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3322 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jan 7 Quiet
15 Jan 7 Quiet
16 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 13 January. Quiet to minor storm levels were
observed in the Antarctic region. The global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly quiet with possible unsettled periods
on 14-16 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 14-16 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jan -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 11
Jan 9
Feb 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 13 January, MUFs in the Australian region
were mostly near predicted monthly levels; in the Northern Australian
region mildly depressed MUFs were observed during local day.
Sporadic Es were observed at several Australian sites. MUFs in
the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly levels on 14-16 January. Sporadic E occurrences are expected
to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 454 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 127000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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