[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jan 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 15 10:30:07 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jan             16 Jan             17 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              75/13              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 14 January. There 
are currently no active regions on the visible disc. Solar activity 
is expected to remain very low over the next three UT days, 15 
to 17 January. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph images. On UT day 14 January the solar wind speed 
showed a gradual decrease from 410 km/s to 330 km/s, the total 
IMF (Bt) varied in the range 3 to 6 nT, the north-south component 
of IMF (Bz) varied between +4 nT and -2 nT, and the solar wind 
particle density between 5 and 10 ppcc. The solar wind parameters 
are expected to remain mostly at nominal values on UT days 15 
and most parts of 16 January. Minor enhancements in these parameters 
may be observed from late on 16 January and throughout UT day 
17 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110001
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               1   11100011
      Townsville           3   11110112
      Learmonth            2   11110002
      Alice Springs        1   01010001
      Gingin               1   11100001
      Canberra             0   01000001
      Hobart               1   01110101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                9   34320111
      Mawson               5   22101113

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0001 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jan     4    Quiet
16 Jan     6    Quiet with isolated unsettled periods
17 Jan     7    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 14 January. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic region. The global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be quiet on UT day 15, quiet with some 
unsettled periods on 16 January and quiet to unsettled on 17 
January.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: On UT day 14 January, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor depressions. MUFs are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 15 to 17 
January.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Jan    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      11
Jan      9
Feb      11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
16 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
17 Jan    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 14 January, MUFs in the Australian region 
were mostly near predicted monthly values with periods of minor 
depressions. Sporadic Es were observed at several Australian 
sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT days 15 to 17 January. Sporadic 
E occurrences are expected to continue.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 410 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:   107000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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