[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jan 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 10 10:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 09 January. There
are currently no active regions on the visible disc. Solar activity
is expected to remain very low over the next three UT days, 10-12
January. CMEs associated with the filament eruptions from the
SW quadrant around 08/0248UT and 08/1318UT have been assessed
as missing Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available satellite images. Through UT day 09 January,
the solar wind speed was near its background levels, under 380
Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) was weak, around 5 nT and the north-south
component of IMF (Bz) varied between +4 nT and -3 nT. Solar wind
speed is expected to slightly enhance today, 10 January due to
HSS from a positive polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 1 11100000
Townsville 1 01100011
Learmonth 1 11110001
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Gingin 1 10100001
Canberra 1 11100001
Hobart 1 11100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 10 33432011
Mawson 8 34111013
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of an isolated
active period.
11 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jan 7 Mostly quiet.
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 09 January. Quiet to active levels were observed
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to increase to unsettled levels with a chance of an isolated
active period on 10-11 January due to coronal hole effects before
returning to mostly quiet levels on 12 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions can be expected
over 10-12 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jan 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 11
Jan 9
Feb 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly
values on UT day 09 January. Strong sporadic Es were observed
at several Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian region are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values over the
next three UT days, 10-12 January. Sporadic E occurrences are
expected to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 67400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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