[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 January 21 issued 2332 UT on 08 Jan 2021

Sat Jan 9 10:32:13 EST 2021

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan:  75/13

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jan             10 Jan             11 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 08 January and 
expected to continue at very low levels for the next three UT 
days, 09 - 11 January. There are no active regions on the visible 
disc. H-Alpha and SDO images observed a filament lift off the 
SW quadrant starting 08/0248UT. An associated CME was observed 
in STEREO and SOHO imagery around 08/0524UT. Given its location, 
this CME might have an earth directed component, analysis is 
underway for this event. SDO images observed an other filament 
lift off SW quadrant starting 08/1318. This event will be further 
analysed for any associated CME when imagery became available 
(there is a large data gap in STREEO and SOHO imagery between 
08/1539 UT-08/2236UT). Through UT day 08 January, the solar wind 
speed was near its background levels, between 390-360 Km/s. The 
total IMF (Bt) was weak, around 4 nT and the north-south component 
of IMF (Bz) was mostly neutral. The solar wind speed is expected 
to be near its nominal levels today UT day, 09 January. Solar 
wind speed is expected to enhance on 10 January due to HSS from 
a positive polarity coronal hole(CME effects awaiting for model 
result).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100001
      Cocos Island         0   01100000
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           2   11101011
      Learmonth            1   11101001
      Alice Springs        1   11100001
      Gingin               1   11100001
      Canberra             1   11100001
      Hobart               2   12100001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000000
      Casey                8   33321112
      Mawson               5   22111122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1211 1212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jan     5    Quiet
10 Jan    12    Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of an isolated 
                active period.
11 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled.

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 08 January. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to remain at quiet levels on 09 January before increasing to 
unsettled levels with a chance of an isolated active period on 
10-11 January due HSS from the positive polarity coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions can be expected 
over 09-11 January.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
08 Jan     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      11
Jan      9
Feb      11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values
10 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values
11 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly 
values on UT day 08 January. Strong sporadic Es were observed 
at several Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian region are 
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values over the 
next three UT days, 09-11 January. Sporadic E occurrences are 
expected to continue.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 461 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:   124000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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