[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jan 2021

Mon Jan 11 10:30:09 EST 2021

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan:  73/9

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jan             12 Jan             13 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              74/11              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 January. There 
are currently no active regions on the visible disc. Solar activity 
is expected to remain very low over the next three UT days, 11-13 
January. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
satellite images. Through UT day 10 January, the solar wind speed 
was near its background levels, under 350 Km/s. The total IMF 
(Bt) was weak, around 5 nT and the north-south component of IMF 
(Bz) varied between +2 nT and -4 nT. Solar wind speed is expected 
to be slightly enhanced on 11-12 January due to weak coronal 
hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10110001
      Cocos Island         0   10100000
      Darwin               1   10100001
      Townsville           2   11110011
      Learmonth            1   10110100
      Alice Springs        1   00110001
      Gingin               1   10100110
      Canberra             1   10110001
      Hobart               1   00110111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                7   23321111
      Mawson               8   22111242

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0100 0000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jan    12    Quiet to Unsettled with chance of an isolated 
                active period.
12 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 10 January. Mostly Quiet to unsettled levels 
were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to increase to unsettled levels on 11-12 January 
due to weak coronal hole effects before returning to mostly quiet 
levels on 13 January. There is a chance of an isolated active 
period today 11 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions can be expected 
over 11-13 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 Jan     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      11
Jan      9
Feb      11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly 
values on UT day 10 January. Moderate MUF depressions observed 
at Cocos Island region between 10/14-18UT. Strong sporadic Es 
were observed at several Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
over the next three UT days, 11-13 January. Sporadic E occurrences 
are expected to continue.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 323 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    26400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.