[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 January 21 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jan 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 3 10:30:09 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 02 January. AR2794
(S19W83) is now spotless and AR2795 (S20W61) is unremarkable.
Slow filament eruptions occurred near S46W23 between 01/2020
UT to 02/0950 UT with the ejecta visible in STEREO A, some of
which appears Earth directed. The solar wind speed range was
310 to 360 km/s with a peak total IMF of 4 nT and a north-south
IMF (Bz) range of +3/-2 nT. Solar activity is expected to be
very low, 03 to 05 January. Small, isolated coronal holes are
likely to elevate the solar wind on 03 January and 05 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11000111
Cocos Island 0 10000000
Darwin 1 11000101
Townsville 2 01000112
Learmonth 2 11100111
Alice Springs 1 11000101
Gingin 2 11001111
Canberra 1 01100111
Hobart 1 11000111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 8 33311211
Mawson 4 22011212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0010 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jan 7 Quiet
05 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 02 January. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed
in the Antarctic region. Quiet global geomagnetic conditions
are expected 03 to 05 January with some unsettled periods due
to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions can be expected
over 03 to 05 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jan 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 11
Jan 9
Feb 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly
values on UT day 02 January. Depressions were observed from early
evening through the night at most sites. Strong sporadic E was
observed mostly at mid-latitude locations. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be near predicted monthly values, 03 to
05 January. Sporadic E occurrences are expected to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 50000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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