[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 January 21 issued 2331 UT on 03 Jan 2021

Mon Jan 4 10:31:30 EST 2021

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan:  80/20

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jan             05 Jan             06 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 03 January. AR2795 
(S20W74) has decayed to plage while AR2794 has rounded the limb. 
A weak CME, first observed at 03/0000 UT, does not appear to 
be Earth directed. The solar wind speed range was 292 to 330 
km/s with a peak total IMF of 4 nT and a north-south IMF (Bz) 
range of +2/-3 nT. Solar activity is expected to be very low 
on 04 to 06 January. The solar wind speed is expected to become 
mildly elevated late today or on 05 January due to a southern 
hemisphere coronal hole. The CME reported on 02 January, is expected 
to arrive late 05 or on 06 January and further disturb solar 
wind parameters.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21001001
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               2   21001012
      Townsville           3   21111111
      Learmonth            2   21001001
      Alice Springs        2   21001001
      Gingin               1   11000001
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Hobart               1   21000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   10000000
      Casey                8   43311101
      Mawson               2   21001111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jan    11    Quiet to Active
06 Jan    16    Quiet to Active. Chance of an isolated minor 
                storm period.

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 03 January. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Quiet global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected 04 January with possible unsettled levels later 
and into 05 January due to coronal hole effects. Late on 05 January 
or on 06 January, unsettled to active conditions are expected 
due to the arrival of a CME. Chance of an isolated minor storm 
period on 06 January.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on 04 to 05 January. Degraded propagation conditions possible 
on 06 January.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Jan     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressions to 20% during local night at some sites.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      11
Jan      9
Feb      11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
05 Jan     5    Near predicted monthly values
06 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted 
monthly values on UT day 03 January. Strong sporadic E was observed 
mostly at mid-latitude locations. MUFs in the Australian region 
are expected to be near predicted monthly values, 04 to 06 January. 
Sporadic E occurrences are expected to continue.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 327 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    26600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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