[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 January 21 issued 2332 UT on 01 Jan 2021

Sat Jan 2 10:32:45 EST 2021

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan:  80/20

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jan             03 Jan             04 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              79/19              79/19

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 01 January. AR2794 
(S19W70) remained stable while AR2795 (S20W48) continued to decay. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low over the next three 
UT days, 02-04 January. Available images and spectrograph data 
show no significant activity. The solar wind speed peaked at 
380 km/s with a peak total IMF of 4 nT and a north-south IMF 
(Bz) range of +/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be 
near nominal levels on 02 January, although a slight enhancement 
in the solar wind speed is possible due to a weak CME associated 
with the B6.6 event on 29 December/2104 UT. A small, northern 
hemisphere coronal hole is likely to cause a minor disturbance 
in the solar wind on 03 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100101
      Cocos Island         0   01000000
      Darwin               1   11100101
      Townsville           2   11100112
      Learmonth            2   10110201
      Alice Springs        1   01100101
      Gingin               2   11110111
      Canberra             1   11100101
      Hobart               2   11200101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   00100100
      Casey               11   34321222
      Mawson               8   22211214

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1001 0000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jan     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 01 January. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels 
were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be mostly quiet, 02-04 January. Possible unsettled 
conditions on 02-03 January due to weak CME and coronal hole 
effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions over the next 
three UT days, 02-04 January.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 Jan    27

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      11
Jan      9
Feb      11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jan    15    Near predicted monthly values with some enhancements.
03 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values
04 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly 
values to enhanced on UT day 01 January with sometimes strong 
enhancements at lower latitude stations. Strong sporadic E was 
observed mostly at mid-latitude, eastern Australia sites. MUFs 
in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values over the next three UT days, 02-04 January. Enhancements 
likely at times on 02 January. Sporadic E occurrences are expected 
to continue.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 409 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    83900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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