[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 December 20 issued 2330 UT on 31 Dec 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 1 10:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 81/22 80/20 79/19
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 31 December. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disc, 2794(S17W62)
and 2795(S18W36). Region 2794 remained relatively stale while
region 2795 showed further decay. Solar activity is expected
to be very low over the next three UT days, 01-03 January, with
a slight chance of an isolated C-class flare. H-Aplha images
observed a small filament eruption in the SW quadrant east of
region 2795 around 31/0246 UT, no clear CME signature was observed
in STEREO and SOHO images. No other Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph images. On UT day 31 December,
the solar wind speed decreased, currently around 380 Km/s. The
total IMF (Bt) was weak, under 4 nT and the north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) range was +/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be near its nominal levels over the next two UT days, 01-02
January. Slight enhancement in the solar wind speed may be observed
on 03 January due to HSS from a small northern hemisphere positive
polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11010101
Cocos Island 1 10010100
Darwin 1 11010101
Townsville 2 22011001
Learmonth 2 12011101
Alice Springs 1 11010001
Gingin 2 11011101
Canberra 1 11010101
Hobart 2 11110101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 16 35432222
Mawson 13 33122244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2212 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jan 5 Quiet
02 Jan 5 Quiet
03 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 31 December. Quiet to active levels were observed
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to remain at quiet levels on 01-02 January before increasing
to unsettled levels with a slight chance of an isolated active
period on 03 January should earth connect with HSS from the positive
polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions over the next
three UT days, 01-03 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Dec 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -6
Dec 5
Jan 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly
values to slightly enhanced on UT day 31 December. Strong sporadic
Es were observed at several Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
over the next three UT days, 01-03 January. Sporadic E occurrences
are expected to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 498 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 243000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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