[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 February 21 issued 2330 UT on 24 Feb 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 25 10:30:09 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 24 February. Currently
there are three numbered regions on the visible solar disk, plage
region AR2803 and spotted regions AR2804 (N19W29 Dai/beta) and
AR2805 (S21W22 Cso/beta). Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days 25-27 February. There were
no Earth directed CMEs in the available coronagraph images. On
24 February, the solar wind speed range was 435 km/s to 524 km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 10 nT and the north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) range was +7/-8 nT, with mostly southward Bz
values during 04-11 UT and 15-23UT. A glancing blow from the
20 February CME arrived at Earth at 24/04 UT elevating solar
wind parameters. The solar wind speed is expected to be mildly
disturbed on UT day 25 February and then return to background
levels on UT days 26-27 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 24 Feb : A K
Australian Region 12 13232342
Cocos Island 8 12222332
Darwin 10 13232332
Townsville 15 23333343
Learmonth 16 23232452
Alice Springs 12 13232342
Gingin 8 22232---
Canberra 12 13322342
Hobart 14 14323342
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Feb :
Macquarie Island 31 13454562
Casey 20 25332443
Mawson 50 34442676
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 3333 3121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Feb 12 Quiet to unsettled with a chance of an active
period
26 Feb 7 Quiet
27 Feb 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 24 February, quiet to unsettled conditions
were observed in the Australian region with some active periods
due to the arrival of the 20 February CME around 04UT. Quiet
to storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global
geomagnetic conditions on UT day 25 February are expected to
be quiet to unsettled with a chance of active periods in the
first part of the day. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on
UT days 26-27 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF propagation conditions are
expected on UT day 25 February. Mostly normal HF propagation
conditions are expected on UT days 26-27 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Feb 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 2
Feb 12
Mar 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values with some mild
depressions possible
26 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
27 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 24 February, MUFs in the Australian region
were mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions.
Sporadic E layers were observed, strong at times. MUFs in the
Australian region are expected to be near predicted monthly values
with some mild depressions possible on UT day 25 February and
then near predicted monthly values on UT days 26-27 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 560 km/sec Density: 7.8 p/cc Temp: 165000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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