[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 February 21 issued 2330 UT on 24 Feb 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 25 10:30:09 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Feb             26 Feb             27 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 24 February. Currently 
there are three numbered regions on the visible solar disk, plage 
region AR2803 and spotted regions AR2804 (N19W29 Dai/beta) and 
AR2805 (S21W22 Cso/beta). Solar activity is expected to be very 
low to low for the next three days 25-27 February. There were 
no Earth directed CMEs in the available coronagraph images. On 
24 February, the solar wind speed range was 435 km/s to 524 km/s. 
The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 10 nT and the north-south component 
of the IMF (Bz) range was +7/-8 nT, with mostly southward Bz 
values during 04-11 UT and 15-23UT. A glancing blow from the 
20 February CME arrived at Earth at 24/04 UT elevating solar 
wind parameters. The solar wind speed is expected to be mildly 
disturbed on UT day 25 February and then return to background 
levels on UT days 26-27 February.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 24 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   13232342
      Cocos Island         8   12222332
      Darwin              10   13232332
      Townsville          15   23333343
      Learmonth           16   23232452
      Alice Springs       12   13232342
      Gingin               8   22232---
      Canberra            12   13322342
      Hobart              14   14323342    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    31   13454562
      Casey               20   25332443
      Mawson              50   34442676

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             23                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   3333 3121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Feb    12    Quiet to unsettled with a chance of an active 
                period
26 Feb     7    Quiet
27 Feb     7    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 24 February, quiet to unsettled conditions 
were observed in the Australian region with some active periods 
due to the arrival of the 20 February CME around 04UT. Quiet 
to storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global 
geomagnetic conditions on UT day 25 February are expected to 
be quiet to unsettled with a chance of active periods in the 
first part of the day. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on 
UT days 26-27 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF propagation conditions are 
expected on UT day 25 February. Mostly normal HF propagation 
conditions are expected on UT days 26-27 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Feb     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      2
Feb      12
Mar      15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Feb    -5    Near predicted monthly values with some mild 
                depressions possible
26 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values
27 Feb    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 24 February, MUFs in the Australian region 
were mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions. 
Sporadic E layers were observed, strong at times. MUFs in the 
Australian region are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
with some mild depressions possible on UT day 25 February and 
then near predicted monthly values on UT days 26-27 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 560 km/sec  Density:    7.8 p/cc  Temp:   165000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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