[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 February 21 issued 2330 UT on 23 Feb 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 24 10:30:09 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Feb             25 Feb             26 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 23 February. Currently 
there are three numbered regions on the visible solar disk, plage 
region AR2803 and spotted regions AR2804 (N19W18) and AR2805 
(S21W12) both Cao/beta groups. Solar activity is expected to 
be very low to low for the next three days 24-26 February. There 
were no Earth directed CMEs in the available coronagraph images. 
On 23 February, the solar wind speed range was 501 km/s to 636 
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 7 nT and the north-south component 
of the IMF (Bz) range was +5/-5 nT. A glancing blow from the 
20 February CME could still arrive at Earth on 24 February and 
elevate solar wind parameters. Otherwise a quietening solar wind 
could be expected. The solar wind speed is expected to return 
to background levels on UT days 25-26 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 23 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22223221
      Cocos Island         5   21123120
      Darwin               7   22223211
      Townsville          12   33333222
      Learmonth           10   32224221
      Alice Springs        7   22123221
      Gingin              10   32224221
      Canberra             8   22233211
      Hobart               8   23223211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    17   33255200
      Casey               24   55533222
      Mawson              30   63433354

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             13   3422 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Feb    25    Active with possible minor storm conditions
25 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Feb     7    Quiet

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 23 February 
and is current for 24 Feb only. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic 
conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 23 
February. Unsettled to storm levels were observed in the Antarctic 
region. On UT day 24 February a glancing blow from the 20 February 
CME could arrive at Earth, causing quiet to active global geomagnetic 
conditions with possible minor storms. Conditions should subside 
on 25 February. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on 26 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF propagation conditions are 
expected on UT day 24 February. Mostly normal HF propagation 
conditions are expected on UT days 25-26 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Feb    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      2
Feb      12
Mar      15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Feb   -15    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
25 Feb    -5    Near predicted monthly values
26 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 22 February 
and is current for 23-24 Feb. On UT day 23 February, MUFs in 
the Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly values. 
Sporadic E layers were observed, strong at times. MUFs in the 
Australian region are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
with some mild depressions on UT day 24 February. Depressions 
should subside on UT days 25-26 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 564 km/sec  Density:    7.6 p/cc  Temp:   297000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list