[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 February 21 issued 2330 UT on 25 Feb 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 26 10:30:11 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Feb             27 Feb             28 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 25 February. Currently 
there are two sunspot regions on the visible solar disk: AR2804 
(N19W44 Dki/beta) and AR2805 (S21W38 Axx/alpha). AR2804 has started 
to decay after producing weak B-class flares and AR2805 also 
continues to decay. Solar activity is expected to be very low 
to low for the next three UT days 26-28 February. There were 
no Earth directed CMEs in the available coronagraph images. On 
25 February, the solar wind speed range was 427 km/s to 503 km/s 
due a glancing blow from the 20 February CME. The total IMF (Bt) 
peaked at 6 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) 
range was +/-5 nT, with mostly southward Bz values during 00-10 
UT. The solar wind speed should return to background levels on 
UT day 26 February.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 25 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22122222
      Cocos Island         5   21111321
      Darwin               5   21122221
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            7   22122322
      Alice Springs        6   21122222
      Gingin               6   02221322
      Canberra             5   22121212
      Hobart               6   22221222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    12   33342222
      Casey               12   33332322
      Mawson              40   45432375

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             17   2233 2443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Feb     7    Quiet
28 Feb     7    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 25 February, quiet to unsettled conditions 
were observed in the Australian region. Quiet to storm levels 
were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions 
on UT days 26-28 February are expected to be mostly quiet.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 26-28 February.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Feb    -9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      2
Feb      12
Mar      15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values
27 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values
28 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 25 February, MUFs in the Australian region 
were mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild to moderate 
depressions. Sporadic E layers were observed, strong at times. 
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values with some possible mild depressions on UT day 
26 February.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 482 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:    86800 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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