[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 February 21 issued 2330 UT on 18 Feb 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 19 10:30:07 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Feb             20 Feb             21 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 18 February. There 
is a new region on the solar disk 2802 (N19W36) that has only 
produced a few weak B-class flares. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low over the next three UT days, 19-21 February. No 
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available satellite 
images. On UT day 18 February, the solar wind speed declined 
from 400 km/s down to 370 km/s, due to waning coronal hole effects. 
The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 nT and the north-south component 
of the IMF (Bz) range was +3/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to stay near its background levels on UT days 19-20 February. 
Then the solar wind speed may start increasing to moderate and 
strong levels at the end of UT day 20 and during UT day 21, due 
to a HSS from another coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110001
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               2   11111001
      Learmonth            2   12111001
      Alice Springs        1   11110001
      Gingin               1   11100001
      Canberra             1   11110001
      Hobart               1   11110001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     1   01110000
      Casey               11   34422111
      Mawson               9   33222004

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1221 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Feb     7    Quiet
20 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Feb    20    Active

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region 
on UT day 18 February. Quiet to active levels were observed in 
the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be mostly quiet on UT days 19-20 February. At the end of UT 
day 20 February, geomagnetic activity may reach unsettled levels 
due to coronal hole effects. Further increase in geomagnetic 
activity to active levels with possible minor storm periods is 
expected for 21 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 19-20 February. Mostly normal to fair HF propagation 
conditions are expected for the end of UT day 20 February and 
for 21 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Feb     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      2
Feb      12
Mar      15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values
20 Feb    10    Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb   -10    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 18 February, MUFs in the Australian region 
were mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions 
during the local day. Sporadic E layers were observed, strong 
at times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT days 19-20 February. On UT 
day 21 February, MUFs in the Australian region are expected to 
be near predicted monthly values with some mild to moderate MUF 
depressions. Sporadic E occurrences are likely to continue.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 418 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    99000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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