[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 February 21 issued 2330 UT on 18 Feb 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 19 10:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 18 February. There
is a new region on the solar disk 2802 (N19W36) that has only
produced a few weak B-class flares. Solar activity is expected
to be very low over the next three UT days, 19-21 February. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available satellite
images. On UT day 18 February, the solar wind speed declined
from 400 km/s down to 370 km/s, due to waning coronal hole effects.
The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 nT and the north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) range was +3/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to stay near its background levels on UT days 19-20 February.
Then the solar wind speed may start increasing to moderate and
strong levels at the end of UT day 20 and during UT day 21, due
to a HSS from another coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 2 11111001
Learmonth 2 12111001
Alice Springs 1 11110001
Gingin 1 11100001
Canberra 1 11110001
Hobart 1 11110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 01110000
Casey 11 34422111
Mawson 9 33222004
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1221 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Feb 7 Quiet
20 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Feb 20 Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
on UT day 18 February. Quiet to active levels were observed in
the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet on UT days 19-20 February. At the end of UT
day 20 February, geomagnetic activity may reach unsettled levels
due to coronal hole effects. Further increase in geomagnetic
activity to active levels with possible minor storm periods is
expected for 21 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 19-20 February. Mostly normal to fair HF propagation
conditions are expected for the end of UT day 20 February and
for 21 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Feb 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 2
Feb 12
Mar 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
20 Feb 10 Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb -10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 18 February, MUFs in the Australian region
were mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
during the local day. Sporadic E layers were observed, strong
at times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT days 19-20 February. On UT
day 21 February, MUFs in the Australian region are expected to
be near predicted monthly values with some mild to moderate MUF
depressions. Sporadic E occurrences are likely to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 99000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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