[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 February 21 issued 2330 UT on 17 Feb 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 18 10:30:07 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Feb             19 Feb             20 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 17 February. The 
solar disk is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low over the next three UT days, 18-20 February. A 
CME was observed in the Stereo A coronagraph images at 17/1237 
UT that appears to be from another erupting filament at N20W17 
in the H-alpha and SDO images. Further analysis is required to 
determine if this CME is geoeffective. No other Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available satellite images. On UT day 
17 February, the solar wind speed varied between 400 km/s and 
460 km/s, due to a HSS from a coronal hole. The total IMF (Bt) 
peaked at 8 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) 
range was +7/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline 
from slightly enhanced levels back to nominal levels on UT day 
18 February. Then the solar wind speed is expected to remain 
mostly at background levels on UT days 19-20 February. At the 
end of UT day 20 February the solar wind speed may start increasing 
due to a HSS from another coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22122112
      Cocos Island         4   22111111
      Darwin               6   22222112
      Learmonth            8   22232222
      Alice Springs        5   12122112
      Gingin               7   11133222
      Canberra             6   12132112
      Hobart               7   22232212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     8   12243101
      Casey               15   34423223
      Mawson              20   33422345

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   1344 1311     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Feb     7    Quiet
19 Feb     7    Quiet
20 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 17 February. Mostly quiet to active levels were 
observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 18-19 February with 
some possible unsettled periods. At the end of UT day 20 February, 
geomagnetic activity may reach mostly unsettled levels due to 
coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 18-19 February. Mostly normal to fair HF propagation 
conditions are expected on UT day 20 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Feb    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      2
Feb      12
Mar      15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values
19 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values
20 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 17 February, MUFs in the Australian region 
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Mild depressions were 
seen in the Southern Australian region during local day. Sporadic 
E layers were observed, strong at times. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
on UT days 18-20 February. Sporadic E occurrences are likely 
to continue.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 359 km/sec  Density:   11.1 p/cc  Temp:    66900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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