[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 February 21 issued 2330 UT on 16 Feb 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 17 10:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 16 February. The
solar disk is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected
to be very low over the next three UT days, 17-19 February. An
erupting solar filament in the south eastern quadrant was observed
in the H-alpha and SDO images at about 16/1400 UT. Further analysis
is required to determine if the CME from this erupting filament
is geoeffective. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
the available satellite images. On UT day 16 February, the solar
wind speed slightly increased from 330 km/s to 440 km/s, due
to a High Speed Stream from a coronal hole. The total IMF (Bt)
peaked at 11 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
range was +8/-9 nT, with a period of mainly negative (southward
directed) values between 16/0200 and 16/0800 UT. The solar wind
speed is expected to be remain at mildly enhanced levels on UT
day 17 February. Then the solar wind speed is expected to return
to its background levels on UT days 18-19 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 23232311
Cocos Island 7 23221311
Darwin 7 23221311
Learmonth 9 23232321
Alice Springs 9 23232311
Gingin 9 13332320
Canberra 10 23342211
Hobart 13 23352211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Feb :
Macquarie Island 21 13554411
Casey 12 34332311
Mawson 16 23433342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0010 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Feb 7 Quiet
19 Feb 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in
the Australian region on UT day 16 February. Quiet to minor storm
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on UT
day 17 February with some possible active periods and then mostly
quiet on UT days 18-19 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF propagation conditions are
expected on UT day 17 February. Mostly normal propagation conditions
are expected on UT days 18-19 February. Depressed MUFs are likely
for high latitude regions on 17-18 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Feb 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 2
Feb 12
Mar 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
19 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 16 February, MUFs in the Australian region
were near predicted monthly values with some mild to moderate
enhancements in the Northern Australian region. Sporadic E layers
were observed, strong at times. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT
days 17-19 February. Sporadic E occurrences are likely to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 45100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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