[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 February 21 issued 2331 UT on 15 Feb 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 16 10:31:50 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 15 February. The
solar disk is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected
to be very low over the next three UT days, 16-18 February. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available satellite
images. On UT day 15 February, the solar wind speed slightly
increased from 314 km/s to 350 km/s. This is due to a High Speed
Stream associated with an extension of the north polar coronal
hole (positive polarity). The total IMF (Bt) varied between 0/8
nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) range was +5/-7
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be remain near nominal
levels on UT day 16 February. Then the solar wind speed is expected
to return to background levels on UT days 17-18 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 11101122
Cocos Island 3 -1101121
Darwin 3 11111112
Learmonth 3 11101122
Alice Springs 2 20001112
Gingin 4 11101131
Canberra 2 11110012
Hobart 3 11111012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00000011
Casey 11 33421222
Mawson 23 21112266
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2110 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Feb 7 Quiet
18 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 15 February. Quiet to storm levels were observed
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet to unsettled on UT day 16 February and then
mostly quiet on UT days 17-18 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF propagation conditions are
expected on UT day 16 February. Mostly normal propagation conditions
are expected on UT days 17-18 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Feb -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 2
Feb 12
Mar 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly
values during UT day 15 February. Sporadic E layers were observed,
strong at times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 16-18 February.
Sporadic E occurrences are likely to continue.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 144000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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