[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 February 21 issued 2330 UT on 19 Feb 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 20 10:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 19 February. Currently
there are two numbered region on the visible solar disk, AR2802
and AR2803. Solar activity is expected to be very low over the
next three UT days, 20-22 February. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available satellite images. On UT day 19 February,
the solar wind parameters were steady up to 0300 UT. Then a gradual
increase in the total IMF (Bt) up to 10-14 nT was observed; the
north-south component of the IMF (Bz) was mostly negative, varying
in the range +10/-11 nT. The solar wind speed started increasing
around 1845 UT and reached 515 km/s at 2030 UT, currently the
speed is 420 km/s. This disturbance seems to be due to coronal
hole effects. The solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly
elevated due to coronal hole effects during the next three UT
days, 20-22 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Feb : A K
Australian Region 13 11134343
Cocos Island 10 01114333
Darwin 13 12124343
Townsville 17 -2234443
Learmonth 16 10125344
Alice Springs 16 11135343
Gingin 16 11134444
Canberra 13 10234343
Hobart 17 10235443
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Feb :
Macquarie Island 22 11245543
Casey 17 23434333
Mawson 33 43325465
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1111 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Feb 20 Active
21 Feb 18 Active
22 Feb 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 19 February. Quiet to storm
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be active on UT days 20-21 February
due to coronal hole effects. Isolated minor storm periods are
also possible. Then geomagnetic activity is expected to decline
gradually to unsettled levels on 22 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF propagation conditions are
expected on UT days 20-21 February, the degraded conditions are
due to recent and expected increases in geomagnetic activity.
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected for 22 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Feb -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 2
Feb 12
Mar 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Feb -20 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
21 Feb -15 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
22 Feb -8 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 19 February, MUFs in the Australian region
were mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
in the Southern Australian region during local day and after
local dawn. Sporadic E layers were observed, strong at times.
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mildly to moderately
depressed on UT days 20-21 February and mostly near predicted
monthly values on 22 February. Sporadic E occurrences are likely
to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 84000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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