[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 December 21 issued 2330 UT on 28 Dec 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 29 10:30:59 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.8    0402UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.5    1612UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 121/73


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Dec             30 Dec             31 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   122/75             122/75             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate on UT day 28 December with 
several C-class flares and two M-class flares at 28/0401UT and 
28/1611UT from region 2918. A weak signature was observed in 
LASCO C2 (difference) imagery around 28/0612UT, suggest that 
the first M_class flare was associated with a CME (difficult 
to model). No other significant Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
over the last 24 hours. There are currently five numbered regions 
on the visible disk, however flaring has been primarily from 
region 2918. Region 2916, the largest showed some decay while 
a newly numbered region, 2921 has developed, and is now a Beta 
magnetic class. All other regions are small and magnetically 
simple. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate over 
the next 3 UT days, 29-31 December. On UT day 28 December, the 
solar wind speed remained enhanced, varied between 420-540 Km/s. 
The peak of the total IMF (Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF 
(Bz) range was +4/-7nT, with several weak southward excursions. 
Enhanced solar wind speed conditions are expected to continue 
for 29-31 December due to coronal holes effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Mostly quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12211201
      Cocos Island         2   12111100
      Darwin               3   12211100
      Townsville           5   22221211
      Learmonth            4   12212201
      Alice Springs        4   12211201
      Gingin               4   12212201
      Canberra             5   22311111
      Hobart               6   22312210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Dec :
      Macquarie Island    10   23432210
      Casey               18   55332211
      Mawson              21   45523322

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   1122 4211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Dec    15    Quiet to active
30 Dec    12    Quiet to active
31 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: On UT day 28 December, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were quiet with some isolated unsettled periods. 
Major storm conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. 
Quiet to unsettled conditions with possible active periods are 
expected for 29-31 December due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected during 29-31 
December with possible shortwave fadeouts.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Dec    48

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      3
Dec      33
Jan      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Dec    45    Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec    45    Near predicted monthly values
31 Dec    45    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 28 December 
were near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced. MUFs are 
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values with possible 
daylight fadeouts on UT days 29-31 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 371 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:    48200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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