[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 27 Dec 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 28 10:31:05 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Dec 29 Dec 30 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 122/75 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 27 December due to
low level C-class flare activity. The two solar regions that
recently exhibited the most solar flare potential, AR2916 (S16E05)
and AR2918 (N20W13), have now simplified magnetically reducing
the potential for isolated low level M class flares (R1 ASWAS).
The new solar region AR2920 located in the southwest solar quadrant
currently appears magnetically simple, though showing slight
growth. In the past 24 hours the US GOES satellite xray flux
showed an overall declining trend. No significant Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours. Another two new regions
may be emerging in the northwest solar quadrant. On UT day 27
December, the solar wind speed ranged from 305 to 475km/sec as
the Earth entered a coronal hole high speed wind stream. The
peak of the total IMF (Bt) was 13 nT and the north-south IMF
(Bz) range was +/-10 nT, with a period of southward IMF conditions
observed 10-12UT. Prior to the coronal hole wind stream entry
a weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0838UT on 27 December.
Increased solar wind speed conditions are expected to continue
for 28 December, then with a declining trend 29-30 December.
Another isolated coronal hole is visible in the solar northeast
quadrant near the solar equator.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A K
Australian Region 12 11244322
Cocos Island 8 11233320
Darwin 8 11133321
Townsville 16 21245422
Learmonth 13 10244422
Alice Springs 12 00145312
Gingin 12 11135312
Canberra 14 11245312
Hobart 12 11235312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Dec :
Macquarie Island 15 11146201
Casey 17 33434323
Mawson 18 33235342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0001 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
29 Dec 13 Unsettled
30 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 27 December, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet to minor storm. Mostly quiet to
major storm conditions were observed in the Antarctic region.
A weak sudden impulse was observed at 0937UT on 27 December.
This activity is believed to be predominately associated with
the Earths entry into a coronal hole wind stream, and a possible
earlier weak mass ejection. Unsettled to active conditions are
expected for 28 December with an overall declining in trend in
geomagnetic activity trend over 29-30 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair
29 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly fair to normal HF conditions are expected during
28-30 December with possible shortwave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Dec 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Dec 30 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
29 Dec 60 About 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Dec 60 About 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 25
December and is current for 26-28 Dec. MUFs in the Australian
region on UT day 27 December were near predicted monthly values
to 35% enhanced. MUFs are expected to be 10-15% depressed to
near predicted monthly values for 28 Dec, with possible mild
depressions for southern Australian region early in the UT day,
then recovering, following mild overnight geomagnetic activity.
MUFs are then expected to be near predicted monthly values to
15% enhanced at times on UT days 29-30 December. Isolated minor
fadeouts are possible though becoming less likely.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 56500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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