[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 26 Dec 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 27 10:31:14 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Dec 28 Dec 29 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 122/75
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 26 December with several
C-class flares. There are currently seven numbered regions on
the visible solar disk. The largest and most complex is region
2916, showed increase in area and magnetic complexity and is
currently classified a Beta-Gamma magnetic class. Region 2018
has also developed in area and magnetic complexity, classified
as a Beta magnetic class. Despite the developement and magnetic
complexity, the two regions produced only low level C-class flares.
All other regions remained relatively stable and quiet. Solar
activity is expected to be low over the next 3 UT days, 27-29
December, with a chance of isolated M-class flares. SDO imagery
observed a filament eruption in SW quadrant starting at 26/0216UT.
A narrow slow CME was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 26/0419UT.
Preliminary analysis suggested that it might graze earth early
on 30 December, however further analysis will be conducted when
additional imagery become available. No other Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours. On UT day 26 December,
the solar wind speed showed a steady decline, currently around
340 Km/s. The peak of the total IMF (Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) range was +/-3 nT. Near background solar wind speeds
are expected until the arrival of HSS from a northern polar positive
polarity coronal hole late on 27 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11010011
Cocos Island 0 01000010
Darwin 1 11010011
Townsville 2 11110011
Learmonth 1 01000011
Alice Springs 0 11000000
Gingin 2 10100021
Canberra 1 10010011
Hobart 1 01010011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 01120000
Casey 12 24431122
Mawson 15 42211154
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1122 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Dec 15 Quiet to Active
28 Dec 15 Quiet to Active
29 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 26 December, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet. Mostly quiet to active conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. Quiet to active conditions
are expected from late 27 December due to coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected during 27-29
December with possible shortwave fadeouts.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Dec 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Dec 50 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Dec 40 Near predicted monthly values
29 Dec 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 25
December and is current for 26-28 Dec. MUFs in the Australian
region on UT day 26 December were near predicted monthly values
to mildly enhanced. Sporadic E was observed at some stations.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
with possible daylight fadeouts on UT days 27-29 December. Mildly
depressed MUFs may be observed at higher latitude regions 28-29
December due to expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 467 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 302000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list