[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 29 Dec 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 30 10:31:22 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Dec             31 Dec             01 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             108/58             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 29 December with one 
C4.6 flare at 0428 UT from region 2916. The most significant 
regions on the visible disc are 2916 (S16W22, Eki/beta) which 
appears stable and 2918 (N20W40, Cao/beta) which has decayed. 
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next 
three UT days, 30 December to 01 January. There were no Earth 
directed CMEs observed. On 29 December, the solar wind speed 
was below 442 km/s. Other wind parameters were settled until 
about 1930 UT when a small step occurred. Peak total IMF was 
17 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +9/-4 nT. The solar 
wind is expected to be mildly enhanced 30 December to 01 December 
due to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12122223
      Cocos Island         5   11122222
      Darwin               7   11122233
      Townsville           9   22132233
      Learmonth            6   22122222
      Alice Springs        5   02022222
      Gingin               6   21122222
      Canberra             6   11122223
      Hobart               7   12122223    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     7   11133212
      Casey               16   45332222
      Mawson              12   34222323

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1332 1201     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Dec    12    Quiet to Unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
31 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jan    11    Quiet to Unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.

COMMENT: On UT day 29 December, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to minor storm 
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Quiet to unsettled 
conditions with isolated active periods are expected on 30 December 
to 01 January due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected 30 December 
to 01 January with possible short-wave fadeouts (radio blackouts).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Dec    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      3
Dec      33
Jan      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Dec    60    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Dec    55    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Jan    55    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 29 December 
with enhancements to 30% at Darwin, Townsville, Perth, Learmonth 
and Cocos Is. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values to about 15% enhanced over 30 December to 01 January. 
Short-wave fadeouts (radio blackouts) are also possible over 
the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 465 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:   335000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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