[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 29 Dec 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 30 10:31:22 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Dec 31 Dec 01 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 108/58 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 29 December with one
C4.6 flare at 0428 UT from region 2916. The most significant
regions on the visible disc are 2916 (S16W22, Eki/beta) which
appears stable and 2918 (N20W40, Cao/beta) which has decayed.
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next
three UT days, 30 December to 01 January. There were no Earth
directed CMEs observed. On 29 December, the solar wind speed
was below 442 km/s. Other wind parameters were settled until
about 1930 UT when a small step occurred. Peak total IMF was
17 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +9/-4 nT. The solar
wind is expected to be mildly enhanced 30 December to 01 December
due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 12122223
Cocos Island 5 11122222
Darwin 7 11122233
Townsville 9 22132233
Learmonth 6 22122222
Alice Springs 5 02022222
Gingin 6 21122222
Canberra 6 11122223
Hobart 7 12122223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Dec :
Macquarie Island 7 11133212
Casey 16 45332222
Mawson 12 34222323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1332 1201
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Dec 12 Quiet to Unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
31 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jan 11 Quiet to Unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
COMMENT: On UT day 29 December, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to minor storm
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Quiet to unsettled
conditions with isolated active periods are expected on 30 December
to 01 January due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected 30 December
to 01 January with possible short-wave fadeouts (radio blackouts).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Dec 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Dec 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Dec 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Jan 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 29 December
with enhancements to 30% at Darwin, Townsville, Perth, Learmonth
and Cocos Is. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to about 15% enhanced over 30 December to 01 January.
Short-wave fadeouts (radio blackouts) are also possible over
the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 465 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 335000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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