[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 15 Dec 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 16 10:31:20 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 102/50 102/50 102/50
COMMENT: On UT day 15 December, solar activity was low. There
are currently five spotted regions numbered on the solar disk.
There is a sequence of solar regions in the solar southeast quadrant,
with AR2907 (S21E32) the most active producing numerous low level
C class flares, with the largest a C8 flare at 1044UT. This region
is now magnetically complex and there is a good chance for an
M class flare from this region. A small solar filament erupted
near AR2907 early in the UT day, and another filament erupted
around 09UT near the solar southwest limb. The southwest filament
eruption appeared associated with a very faint/narrow CME to
the southwest. Due to their size and locations neither of these
events are likely to be significantly geoeffective. Solar activity
is expected to be low to moderate on UT days 16-18 December.
The solar wind speed was initially near nominal levels and ranged
from 330 to 568km/s, as the Earth entered a coronal hole high
speed wind stream at around 03UT on 15 December. The peak total
IMF (Bt) was 16nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +14/-15
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated for the
next two days due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 13332322
Cocos Island 6 12222311
Darwin 9 13232322
Townsville 10 13332322
Learmonth 11 23332322
Alice Springs 10 13332322
Gingin 11 12332422
Canberra 9 13322322
Hobart 9 13322322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Dec :
Macquarie Island 13 02443322
Casey 30 35643433
Mawson 21 33443443
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1121 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Dec 13 Unsettled to Active
17 Dec 11 Unsettled, chance of active conditions first
half of UT day
18 Dec 10 Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 15 December, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian regions were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to major storm
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mainly unsettled to active for 16-17 December,
due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream, then reducing to
unsettled conditions for 18 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair
17 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
18 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected during
16-18 December. Degraded HF conditions may be experienced at
times during local night hours, for middle to high latitudes
16-17 December. There is a chance for shortwave fadeouts on daylight
HF circuits over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Dec 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values
17 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values
18 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 40 was issued on 15
December and is current for 15-17 Dec. MUFs in the Australian
region on UT day 15 December were mostly near predicted monthly
values with some occasional moderate depressions. Some sporadic
E observed local night hours, with strong sporadic E observed
at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values, with occasional mild depressions of 15% for 16-18 December.
There is a chance for shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits
over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 317 km/sec Density: 11.5 p/cc Temp: 33500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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