[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 14 Dec 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 15 10:31:16 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Dec             16 Dec             17 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              92/37              92/37

COMMENT: On UT day 14 December, solar activity was low. There 
are currently three spotted regions numbered in the southeast 
quadrant of the visible solar disc: AR2905 (S12E20), AR2906 (S30E28) 
and AR2907 (S21E45). Regions 2906 an 2907 are growing. Region 
2907 produced four C-class flares on 14-Dec. Solar activity is 
expected to be low on UT days 15-17 December, with a slight chance 
of isolated M-class flares. A filament disappeared from the N 
hemisphere around 14/1430. No Earth directed CMEs were observed 
in the available imagery. On UT day 14 December, the solar wind 
speed was near nominal levels and ranged from 305 to 346 km/s. 
The peak total IMF (Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) 
range was +4/-6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly 
near its nominal levels for the next three UT days (15-17 December), 
with mild enhancements possible due to patchy coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111211
      Cocos Island         3   11110220
      Darwin               4   21111211
      Townsville           5   22112221
      Learmonth            4   21111221
      Alice Springs        3   11111211
      Gingin               4   22111211
      Canberra             4   12212111
      Hobart               4   12212111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     4   11212111
      Casey               14   44421312
      Mawson              10   33222331

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            9   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   1231 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Dec    13    Quiet to Active
16 Dec    11    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: On UT day 14 December, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian regions were quiet. Quiet to active levels were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be mainly quiet to unsettled for 15-17 December, with active 
periods possible on 15-Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected during 
15-17 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Dec     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      3
Dec      33
Jan      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Dec    15    Near predicted monthly values
16 Dec    20    Near predicted monthly values
17 Dec    25    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 12 December 
and is current for 13-15 Dec. MUFs in the Australian region on 
UT day 14 December were mostly near predicted monthly values, 
with occasional mild depressions at some locations in the region. 
Mostly near predicted monthly values are expected on 15-17 December, 
with a chance of mild depressions in some locations on 15-Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 317 km/sec  Density:   15.2 p/cc  Temp:    21800 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list