[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 16 Dec 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 17 10:31:29 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Dec             18 Dec             19 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   118/70             118/70             118/70

COMMENT: On UT day 16 December, solar activity was low with several 
C-class flares from regions 2909, 2907 and 2911. There are currently 
seven numbered regions on the solar visible disk. Solar activity 
is expected to be low to moderate on UT days 17-19 December. 
There was a CME towards the east observed in LASCO C2 images 
around 16/0400UT, appears to be associated with a C1 flare from 
region 2909 at 16/0354 UT, unlikely to have any earth directed 
component. No other CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
data. On UT day 16 December, the solar wind speed showed a decreasing 
trend from 550 km/s down to 450km/s. The peak of the total IMF 
(Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was 
mostly +/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue 
declining to near background levels on UT days 17-19 December.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22322122
      Cocos Island         5   21221220
      Darwin               6   21222122
      Townsville           8   22332122
      Learmonth            8   22233221
      Alice Springs        6   11322122
      Gingin              10   32332231
      Canberra             6   12321122
      Hobart               6   12321122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     8   12243111
      Casey               22   45541232
      Mawson              16   34432233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              25   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              6   1123 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Dec     7    Mostly quiet
19 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 16 December, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian regions were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to minor storm 
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be quiet to unsettled today, 17 December, due 
to coronal hole high speed wind stream, then reducing to mostly 
quiet conditions for 18-19 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected during 17-19 
December with possible SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Dec    21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      3
Dec      33
Jan      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Dec    20    Near predicted monthly values
18 Dec    20    Near predicted monthly values
19 Dec    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 40 was issued on 15 
December and is current for 15-17 Dec. MUFs in the Australian 
region on UT day 16 December were mostly near predicted monthly 
values with some occasional moderate depressions at Cocos Island 
region local night. Some sporadic E were observed at some stations. 
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
with possible SWFs on UT days 17-19 December.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 521 km/sec  Density:   11.6 p/cc  Temp:   253000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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