[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 09 Dec 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 10 10:31:14 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: On UT day 9 December, solar activity was very low, with
no Earth directed CMEs observed. The visible solar disk is spotless.
On UT day 9 December, the solar wind speed ranged from 326 to
371 km/sec, the peak total IMF (Bt) was 3 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) range was +2/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be initially near nominal levels on 10 December, with a possible
mild increase later in the UT day due to a CME first observed
on 5 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11001101
Cocos Island 1 20100000
Darwin 2 11101101
Townsville 3 11111111
Learmonth 1 01011101
Alice Springs 1 01001101
Gingin 1 11011001
Canberra 1 01001101
Hobart 1 01001101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 8 23322112
Mawson 6 42112101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1122 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Dec 13 Quiet to Unsettled, with chance of active periods
11 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Dec 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 9 December, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet. Quiet to active levels were observed
in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet to unsettled during 10 December, with possible
isolated active periods due to a CME first observed on 5 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected during
10-12 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Dec -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15-20%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Dec 0 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
11 Dec 0 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
12 Dec 0 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 9 December
and is current for 10-12 Dec. MUFs in the Australian region on
UT day 9 December were variable ranging from 25% depressed at
times to near predicted monthly values, possibly due to low levels
of ionising solar flux. Similar conditions are expected during
10-12 December. Strong sporadic E frequently observed.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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