[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 10 Dec 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 11 10:31:01 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 78/17
COMMENT: On UT day 10 December, solar activity was very low,
with no notable flares. There are currently two numbered regions
(AR2903 and AR2904) on the visible solar disc. AR2903 will soon
rotate to the farside of the sun. Solar activity is expected
to be very low on UT days 11-13 December. No Earth directed CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day
10 December, the solar wind speed was near its nominal level
and ranged from 300 to 330 km/s. The peak total IMF (Bt) was
10 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +4/-4 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to be mostly near its nominal levels for
the next three UT days (11-13 December).
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11111211
Cocos Island 2 --110111
Darwin 2 11110111
Townsville 5 12111222
Learmonth 4 01111222
Alice Springs 2 11110111
Gingin 2 10111111
Canberra 3 02111211
Hobart 2 01111201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00101000
Casey 10 24321222
Mawson 8 32121114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0100 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Dec 5 Quiet
12 Dec 5 Quiet
13 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 10 December, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet. Quiet to unsettled levels were
observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three UT days (11 -
13 December), with a chance of isolated unsettled conditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected during
11-13 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Dec 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Dec 10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Dec 10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 9 December
and is current for 10-12 Dec. MUFs in the Australian region on
UT day 10 December were variable ranging from 20% depressed at
times to near predicted monthly values, possibly due to low levels
of ionising solar flux. Similar conditions are expected during
11-13 December. Strong sporadic E frequently observed.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 34700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list