[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 08 Dec 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 9 10:31:05 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 80/20 82/23
COMMENT: On UT day 8 December, solar activity was very low, with
no Earth directed CMEs observed. There is currently one single
simple sunspot group AR2904 (S26E06) on the solar disc. A small
solar filament located at N41W50 has erupted from the solar disc,
but is considered too small to be geoeffective. Solar activity
is expected to be very low to low on UT days 9-11 December. On
UT day 8 December, the solar wind speed ranged from 386 to 457
km/sec, the peak total IMF (Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) range was +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be near nominal levels on 9 December, with a possible mild
increase on 10 December due to a CME first observed on 5 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11110101
Cocos Island 3 111-----
Darwin 2 21110101
Townsville 2 21110101
Learmonth 2 11110101
Alice Springs 1 10110101
Gingin 1 10110101
Canberra 1 10110101
Hobart 1 11110100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 10210000
Casey 12 44322211
Mawson 12 23121225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 2100 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Dec 13 Unsettled, chance of isolated active periods
11 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 8 December, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet. Quiet to minor storm levels were
observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be quiet to unsettled during 9 December, predominately
unsettled levels are expected on 10 December, with possible isolated
active periods due to a CME first observed on 5 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected during
9-11 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Dec 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20%-30%.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Dec 5 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
10 Dec 5 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
11 Dec 5 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 6 December
and is current for 7-9 Dec. MUFs in the Australian region on
UT day 8 December were variable ranging from 30% depressed at
times to near predicted monthly values, possibly due to low levels
of ionising solar flux. Similar conditions are expected during
9-11 December. Sporadic E observed during afternoon and evening
hours at some stations.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 490 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 201000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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