[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 August 21 issued 2336 UT on 28 Aug 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 29 09:36:25 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4/-- 0611UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Aug
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was at moderate levels on UT day 28 August
with one M-class flare and several C-class flares, all from region
2860. The largest M4.7 flare peaked at 28/0611 UT. There are
currently four numbered regions on the visible disk: AR2859,
AR2860, AR2861, and AR2862. Solar activity is expected to be
at low to moderate levels on UT days 29-31 August because there
is a chance of M-class flares due to the flaring potential of
AR2860. The two previously reported CMEs observed on 26 August
are expected to reach the Earth, today 29 August. At least two
CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 imagery, the first starting at
28/0636 UT associated with M4.7 flare (S29E0) and second starting
at 28/1236 UT associated with a ~15 long filament centered at
N35E10. Both these CME are expected to impact the earth. The
estimated possible arrival time will be provided after the completion
of the model run. On UT day 28 August, the solar wind speed was
near its background levels. The total IMF (Bt) range was 7 nT
to 13 nT and exhibited a declining trend throughout the UT day.
The IMF north-south component (Bz) was varying in the range -9/+6
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to enhance today 29 August
in response to the expected arrival of the two 26 August CMEs.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 21232211
Cocos Island 4 21221210
Darwin 7 21332202
Townsville 7 22232212
Learmonth 9 31332320
Alice Springs 5 21232200
Gingin 6 21231220
Canberra 5 22231200
Hobart 6 22332100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Aug :
Macquarie Island 11 32432310
Casey 9 33332110
Mawson 31 54443641
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 21 3125 4434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Aug 27 Active
30 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
31 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 28 August and
is current for 28-30 Aug. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly
quiet to unsettled in the Australian region and at quiet to storm
levels in the Antarctic region on UT day 28 August. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be initially quiet then active on
UT day 29 August, with a possibility of an isolated minor storm
period. This disturbed condition is in response to the possible
arrival of the two 26 August CMEs at Earth. On 30 August, geomagnetic
activity is expected to decline to unsettled to active levels.
Aurora may be visible on the local night of 29 August from Tasmania
and may be from Southern parts of Victoria.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected on 29-30
August due to expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Aug 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values
30 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values
31 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 28
August and is current for 28-29 Aug. MUFs in the Australian region
on UT day 28 August were mostly near predicted monthly values
with some mild MUF depressions in the Southern Australian region
during local dawn and over the Cocos Island during the local
night. MUFs in the Australian region on UT days 29-31 August
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values with
the possibility of mild to moderate MUF depressions due to the
expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 96500 K Bz: -8 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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