[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 August 21 issued 2353 UT on 29 Aug 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 30 09:53:05 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Aug 31 Aug 01 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels on UT day 29 August
with three C-class flares, all from region 2860. The largest
C8.1 flare peaked at 29/1003 UT. There are currently four numbered
regions on the visible disk: AR2859, AR2860, AR2861, and AR2862.
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels on
UT days 29-31 August because there is a chance of M-class flares
due to the flaring potential of AR2860. The CME associated with
28 August M4.7 flare (S29E00) is expected to arrived on earth
on late UT day 31 August or on early UT day 01 September. The
possible CME associated with the large disappearing filament
at about 28/1400 UT centered at N35E10 is being further investigated.
On UT day 29 August, the solar wind speed varied in the range
of 350 - 420 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) range was 1 nT to 10 nT.
The IMF north-south component (Bz) was varying in the range -4/+6
nT. There is evidence of mild perturbation in solar wind conditions
at near 29/1945 UT, possibly indicating the arrival of the 26
August CME. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near mildly
elevated levels today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 22110222
Cocos Island 4 22110122
Darwin 5 22110222
Townsville 5 22110222
Learmonth 5 22111222
Alice Springs 5 22110222
Gingin 6 22110232
Canberra 4 22010222
Hobart 4 11011222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 11000221
Casey 9 33311222
Mawson 14 23211245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 17 5343 1311
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Aug 10 Initially quiet and active towards the end of
UT day
01 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 28 August and
is current for 28-30 Aug. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly
quiet in the Australian region and at quiet to unsettled levels
in the Antarctic region on UT day 29 August. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on UT
day 30 August. However, there remains the possibility of an isolated
active to minor storm period if the IMF Bz remains southwards
for prolonged periods. On 31 August, geomagnetic activity is
expected to be initially quiet and then may reach active levels
in response to the arrival of 28 August CME caused by the M4.7
flare. Active to unsettled conditions are expected to continue
on UT day 01 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Aug 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
31 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 29 August were
mildly depressed to near predicted monthly values. Mild MUF depressions
were observed during the local night over most ionosonde sites.
MUFs in the Australian region on UT days 30 August - 01 September
are expected to be mildly depressed to near predicted monthly
values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 366 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 22000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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