[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 23 Aug 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 24 09:30:54 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 23 August. There
is currently one numbered region on the visible disk: AR2859
(N19E47 Hrx-Alpha). The large filament in the northeast quadrant,
that disappeared from H-alpha images during late hours on 22
August, has produced a faint CME. This CME seems to have a weak
Earthward directed component and further analysis will be done
about this CME. Solar activity is expected to be very low on
UT days 24 to 26 August. On UT day 23 August, the solar wind
speed was around 300 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) between 2 and 6
nT and the IMF north-south component (Bz) range was +5/-3 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to be near background levels
on UT day 24 August and then show gradual increase to moderate
levels through UT day 25 August due to a northern polar coronal
hole effect. The effect of this coronal hole is expected to keep
the solar wind stream moderately enhanced during most parts of
UT day 26 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 2 110-----
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 1 11100001
Learmonth 1 11100000
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Gingin 0 01100000
Canberra 0 01000001
Hobart 0 01000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00100000
Casey 3 13210000
Mawson 2 12000002
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Aug 7 Quiet
25 Aug 15 Quiet to active
26 Aug 18 Quiet to active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region and predominantly quiet in the Antarctic region on UT
day 23 August. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to
be quiet on UT day 24 August and quiet to active on 25 and 26
August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT day 24 August. Minor to mild MUF depressions may be possible
on UT days 25 and 26 August due to expected rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Aug 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug 8 Near predicted monthly values
26 Aug 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 23 August were
near predicted monthly values, with some mild MUF depressions
in the Northern Australian region and mild enhancements in the
Antarctic regions. MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 24
August are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values.
Some mild MUF depressions may occur on UT days 25 and 26 August
due to the expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 12.9 p/cc Temp: 18700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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