[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 22 Aug 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 23 09:30:55 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 22 August with three
C1 flares region 2859, the largest of which was a C1.9 flare
at 1020 UT. There are currently two numbered regions on the visible
disk: AR2858 (N13W51 Axx-Alpha) and AR2859 (N19E63 Hrx-Alpha).
The large unstable filament in the northeast quadrant disappeared
from H-alpha images around 22/15 UT. Also there was a filament
eruption observed in SDO images near E05S65 around 22/0207 UT.
There was a weak CME towards the south observed in Lasco images
around 22/03 UT that may be associated with this filament eruption.
No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph
images. Solar activity is expected to be low on UT days 23-25
August. On UT day 22 August, the solar wind speed was between
290 km/s and 320 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 nT and
the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +3/-1 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to be near background levels to slightly
enhanced on UT day 23 August. However the solar wind speed is
expected to increase to moderately enhanced levels on UT days
24-25 August, due to a northern polar coronal hole with extension
down to low latitudes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11101101
Cocos Island 2 11111100
Darwin 2 11101101
Townsville 3 11101112
Learmonth 1 10101100
Alice Springs 2 11101101
Gingin 1 10100100
Canberra 0 01100000
Hobart 1 01100100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 12300110
Mawson 4 22300100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1012 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Aug 12 Unsettled to Active
25 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region and quiet to unsettled in the Antarctic region on UT day
22 August. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet
to unsettled on UT day 23 August due to weak coronal hole effects.
Then on UT days 24-25 August unsettled to active conditions are
expected, due to a northern polar coronal hole with extension
down to low latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 23-25 August. Some mild degradations in HF propagation
conditions may occur on UT days 24-25 August, due to the expected
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Aug 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 22 August were
near predicted monthly values, with some mild MUF depressions
in the Northern Australian region during the local day and in
the Cocos Island region during the local night. MUFs in the Australian
region on UT days 23-25 August are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values. Some mild MUF depressions may occur
on UT days 24-25 August, due to the expected increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 43000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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