[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 24 Aug 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 25 09:30:56 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 24 August. A C1.5 flare
was observed from the region 2859 at 24/14:49UT. There is currently
one numbered region on the visible disk: AR2859 (N19E34/22:45UT/24August,
Hsx-Alpha). The previously reported CME, from the eruption of
a large filament in the northeast quadrant during late hours
on 22 August, seems like a narrow miss, but a weak interaction
cannot be completely ruled out. If it does hit the earth, the
interaction is expected to happen during the first half of UT
day 27 August. Another CME has left the west limb due to the
eruption of another large filament that can be seen between 24/0300-0845
UT in the SDO/AIA304 and in LASCO C2 images from 24/0648 UT.
As per the preliminary analysis, it looks earthward directed.
Further analysis will be done about the CME. Solar activity is
expected to be very low on UT days 25 to 27 August. On UT day
24 August, the solar wind speed was around 300 km/s until mid-day
and then showed a gradual increase to 365 km/s by 24/22:45 UT,
the total IMF (Bt) varied between 3 and 10 nT and the IMF north-south
component (Bz) range was +8/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue to show gradual increase to moderate levels through
UT day 25 August due to the effect of a northern polar coronal hole.
The effect of this coronal hole is expected to keep the solar
wind stream moderately enhanced on UT day 26 August and during
most parts of UT day 27 August. There is small chance of the
solar wind stream also getting slight strength on UT day 27 August
from the CME of 22 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11110022
Cocos Island 2 11010022
Darwin 2 11010022
Townsville 3 01110122
Learmonth 3 11110122
Alice Springs 1 00100012
Gingin 2 10110022
Canberra 2 00110012
Hobart 2 00020012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 00032001
Casey 6 23310112
Mawson 8 11122043
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 2 0100 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Aug 15 Quiet to active
26 Aug 18 Unsettled to active
27 Aug 15 Quiet to active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region and predominantly quiet in the Antarctic region on UT
day 24 August. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to
be quiet to active on UT days 25 and 27 August and unsettled
to active on 26 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs on UT days 25 to 27 August are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values with the possibility of minor to
mild MUF depressions due to the expected increase in geomagnetic
activity levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Aug 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Aug 8 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 Aug 6 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
27 Aug 8 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 23 August were
near predicted monthly values, with some mild MUF depressions
in the Northern Australian region and mild enhancements in the
Antarctic regions. MUFs in the Australian region on UT days 25
to 27 August are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values with the possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions
due to the expected increase in geomagnetic activity levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 296 km/sec Density: 14.4 p/cc Temp: 30600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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