[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 19 Aug 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 20 09:30:56 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 19 August. AR
2858 (N13W13, beta) has decayed and AR2857 (N18W66) appears to
have decayed to plage. Solar activity is expected to be very
low on 20-22 August. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed
in the available coronagraph images. On 19 August, the solar
wind speed range was 311-403 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) peaked
at 7 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +4/-6
nT. A small step in the parameters at 0904 UT appears to mark
the arrival of a weak CME with Bz southward between 0907-1722
UT. The solar wind is expected to be settled on 20 August although
later, or on 21 August, coronal hole effects may begin to weakly
disturb parameters.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 01022211
Cocos Island 1 01011110
Darwin 3 11021111
Townsville 3 01022211
Learmonth 4 10022221
Alice Springs 2 00022111
Gingin 4 00012321
Canberra 3 01022210
Hobart 3 00022210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Aug :
Macquarie Island 5 00023310
Casey 5 12221211
Mawson 13 11012345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2301 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region and at quiet to minor storm levels in the Antarctic region
on UT day 19 August. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be initially quiet on 20 August. Weak coronal hole effects
are expected to cause some unsettled levels over the forecast
period possibly commencing late on 20 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 20-22 August. Some mild MUF depressions possible at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Aug 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values at
Townsville. Depressed to 30% at Darwin 01-07 UT
and 20-21 UT.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
21 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 19 August were
near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed during local
day and early evening. Night MUFs at times were enhanced. Some
night spread F observed at mid latitudes. MUFs in the Australian
region on 20-22 August are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 20% depressed with depressions most likely during daytime
and early evening.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 96600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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