[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 18 Aug 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 19 09:30:53 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 18 August. AR
2857 (N18W52) continued to decay. Newly assigned AR 2858 (N13E01,
beta) emerged rapidly and, an as yet unnumbered region, has emerged
near N16W62. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low
on 19-21 August. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in
the available coronagraph images. On 18 August, the solar wind
speed range was 380-469 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) peaked at 5
nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +3/-5 nT.
The solar wind is expected to be settled on 19 August. Coronal
hole effects may weakly disturb parameters later on 20 or 21
August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 12112110
Cocos Island 1 11001010
Darwin 3 11112101
Townsville 5 22112211
Learmonth 4 22212110
Alice Springs 2 11112100
Gingin 4 22112110
Canberra 5 121122--
Hobart 3 12112200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Aug :
Macquarie Island 5 11023300
Casey 7 23322110
Mawson 24 64223251
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 4 1102 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Aug 7 Quiet
20 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region and at quiet to storm levels in the Antarctic region on
UT day 18 August. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be quiet 19 August and quiet to unsettled 20-21 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 19-21 August. Some mild MUF depressions possible at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Aug 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
25% at Darwin 03-07 and 17-21 UT.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values
20 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
21 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 18 August were
mostly near predicted monthly values with enhancements during
night hours at mid latitudes. Night spread F observed at Brisbane
and Norfolk Is. MUFs in the Australian region on 19-20 August
are expected to be near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 15%.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 136000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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