[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 17 Aug 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 18 09:30:53 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 17 August. There
is one spot group on the visible disc, AR 2857 (N18W38, beta)
which has decayed. AR 2853 (N26W49) has decayed to plage. Solar
activity is expected to be very low on 18-20 August. No Earth
directed CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph
images. On 17 August, the solar wind speed range was 422-492
km/s, the total IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 nT and the north-south IMF
(Bz) component range was +3/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be mildly elevated on 18-19 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11121101
Cocos Island 3 11121101
Darwin 2 11111101
Townsville 3 11121111
Learmonth 3 11121201
Alice Springs 2 11111101
Gingin 3 01122200
Canberra 2 00021101
Hobart 2 00021101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 00032100
Casey 9 33322211
Mawson 14 33223215
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 3211 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Aug 7 Quiet
20 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region and at quiet to minor storm levels in the Antarctic region
on UT day 17 August. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be quiet to unsettled 18 August and quiet 19-20 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 18-20 August. Some mild MUF depressions likely at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Aug 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25%
local day and pre-dawn at Darwin.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
20 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 17 August were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E observed at
Learmonth afternoon and early evening, and daytime at Darwin.
Night spread F observed at Hobart. MUFs in the Australian region
on 18-20 August are expected to be near predicted monthly values
with occasional depressions to 20%.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 461 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 194000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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