[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 16 Aug 2021

Tue Aug 17 09:30:06 EST 2021

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Aug             18 Aug             19 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              74/11              73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 16 August. There 
are two spot groups on the visible disc, AR 2853 (N26W36, alpha) 
and AR 2857 (N18W25, beta) with some growth in AR 2857. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low to low on 17-19 August. No 
Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph 
images. On 16 August, the solar wind speed was mildly elevated, 
ranging between 434-511 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 6 
nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +/-5 nT. 
The solar wind speed is expected to be mildly elevated on 17-18 
August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21212201
      Cocos Island         3   11211200
      Darwin               4   22201201
      Townsville           6   22212212
      Learmonth            4   21202201
      Alice Springs        3   21102201
      Gingin               5   21212301
      Canberra             4   21112201
      Hobart               4   21112201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     5   20133200
      Casey                9   33322212
      Mawson              20   43322226

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             10   2332 2223     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Aug     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian 
region and at quiet to storm levels in the Antarctic region on 
UT day 16 August. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be quiet to unsettled 17-19 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on 17-19 August. Some mild MUF depressions likely at times.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Aug    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      17
Aug      25
Sep      28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 16 August were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25% were 
observed at times at Cocos Is. and Darwin. MUFs in the Australian 
region on 17-19 August are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values with occasional depressions to 20%.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 433 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:   137000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.