[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 15 Aug 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 16 09:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 15 August. Solar
activity is expected to be very low on UT days 16 to 18 August.
No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph
images during the last 24 hours. On 15 August, the solar wind
speed showed a gradual increase from 360 to 500 km/s, the total
IMF (Bt) varied between 3 and 8 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz)
component range was +6/-8 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be mostly near background levels on UT days 16 to 18 August
with small possibility of occasional minor enhancements on 16
August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 22331122
Cocos Island 3 12210011
Darwin 6 22321111
Townsville 8 22331222
Learmonth 8 22331122
Alice Springs 5 12320111
Gingin 8 22331122
Canberra 6 12330112
Hobart 7 12331122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Aug :
Macquarie Island 5 01331111
Casey 9 23331122
Mawson 30 53432256
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1121 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Aug 7 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Aug 5 Quiet
18 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian and the Antarctic
regions was predominantly quiet to unsettled on UT day 15 August
with one active and three minor storm periods recorded on one
Antarctic station. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to
be at quiet to unsettled levels on UT days 16 August and quiet
on 17 and 18 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT days 16 to 18 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Aug 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug 18 Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug 18 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 15 August were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Minor depressions in the
Northern Australian region were observed. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on UT days 16 to 18 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 93700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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