[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 20 Aug 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 21 09:30:55 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 79/19 79/19
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 20 August. There are
currently three numbered regions on the visible disk: AR2853
and AR2857 that are rotating off the northwest limb and AR2858
(N13W26 Bxo-Beta). There are two new regions appearing on the
northeast and southeast limbs. There was a long duration B flare
between 05-09 UT from a region just beyond the southeast limb.
Region 2853 on the northwest limb produced a long duration C3.0
flare at 1557 UT, a C2.3 flare at 1649 UT and a C1.5 flare at
2200 UT. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on
UT days 21-23 August. There was a southeast CME at 20/06UT in
Lasco images but it appears to be from a region on the southeast
limb in SDO 171 images and thus not geoeffective. No Earth directed
CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph images.
On UT day 20 August, the solar wind speed was between 295 km/s
and 350 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 8 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) component range was +6/-7 nT. The Bz component was mostly
southwards during 0546-1413 UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be near background levels on UT days 21-23 August, but may
be elevated to slightly enhanced levels due to weak coronal hole
effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 01222210
Cocos Island 2 01112200
Darwin 5 12222201
Townsville 4 01222211
Learmonth 4 01222210
Alice Springs 3 01122200
Gingin 3 01122210
Canberra 3 01222200
Hobart 7 01233310
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Aug :
Macquarie Island 13 00245400
Casey 7 23322210
Mawson 16 23232353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 0002 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region and at quiet to minor storm levels in the Antarctic region
on UT day 20 August. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be quiet to unsettled on UT days 21-23 August due to weak
coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 21-23 August. Some mild MUF depressions possible at
times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Aug 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 20 August were
near predicted monthly values, with some mild MUF depressions
in the Cocos Island region. MUFs in the Australian region on
UT days 21-23 August are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values with some possible mild MUF depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 44000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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