[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 20 Aug 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 21 09:30:55 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Aug             22 Aug             23 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    79/19              79/19              79/19

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 20 August. There are 
currently three numbered regions on the visible disk: AR2853 
and AR2857 that are rotating off the northwest limb and AR2858 
(N13W26 Bxo-Beta). There are two new regions appearing on the 
northeast and southeast limbs. There was a long duration B flare 
between 05-09 UT from a region just beyond the southeast limb. 
Region 2853 on the northwest limb produced a long duration C3.0 
flare at 1557 UT, a C2.3 flare at 1649 UT and a C1.5 flare at 
2200 UT. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on 
UT days 21-23 August. There was a southeast CME at 20/06UT in 
Lasco images but it appears to be from a region on the southeast 
limb in SDO 171 images and thus not geoeffective. No Earth directed 
CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph images. 
On UT day 20 August, the solar wind speed was between 295 km/s 
and 350 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 8 nT and the north-south 
IMF (Bz) component range was +6/-7 nT. The Bz component was mostly 
southwards during 0546-1413 UT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to be near background levels on UT days 21-23 August, but may 
be elevated to slightly enhanced levels due to weak coronal hole 
effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   01222210
      Cocos Island         2   01112200
      Darwin               5   12222201
      Townsville           4   01222211
      Learmonth            4   01222210
      Alice Springs        3   01122200
      Gingin               3   01122210
      Canberra             3   01222200
      Hobart               7   01233310    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    13   00245400
      Casey                7   23322210
      Mawson              16   23232353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   0002 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian 
region and at quiet to minor storm levels in the Antarctic region 
on UT day 20 August. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be quiet to unsettled on UT days 21-23 August due to weak 
coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 21-23 August. Some mild MUF depressions possible at 
times.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Aug    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      17
Aug      25
Sep      28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Aug    20    Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 20 August were 
near predicted monthly values, with some mild MUF depressions 
in the Cocos Island region. MUFs in the Australian region on 
UT days 21-23 August are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values with some possible mild MUF depressions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 338 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:    44000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list