[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 07 Aug 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 8 09:30:07 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Aug             09 Aug             10 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 07 August. There 
are two numbered regions on the visible disc ARs 2851 (N15W34) 
and 2852 (S12E09), both with no spots. A plage region has rotated 
over the east limb near N25E83. Solar activity is expected to 
be very low on 08-10 August. No Earth directed CMEs have been 
observed in the available coronagraph images. On 07 August, the 
solar wind speed range was 309-506 km/s peaking at 1607 UT. The 
IMF Bt component peaked at 13 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) 
range was +7/-8 nT with Bz southward until ~0430 UT. Small, patchy 
coronal holes may cause mild enhancements in the solar wind over 
the next few days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222220
      Cocos Island         6   13222120
      Darwin               6   12222221
      Townsville           6   22222221
      Learmonth            8   22223320
      Alice Springs        5   12222220
      Gingin               7   22223220
      Canberra             6   22222220
      Hobart               7   22222321    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    11   12234411
      Casey                9   22233321
      Mawson              35   56434354

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              7   1211 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 6 August and 
is current for 7-8 Aug. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian 
region were quiet to unsettled and at quiet to storm levels in 
the Antarctic region on UT day 07 August. Global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on 08-10 August. 
There is a slight chance of isolated active conditions on 09-10 
August due to weak coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on 08-10 August. Mild degradations in MUFs are likely.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Aug    21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values at Townsville. Depressions
      to 20% at Darwin during day and around dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day. Near predicted monthly
      values during local night. Depressions to 30% at Hobart
      00-12 UT. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      17
Aug      25
Sep      28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 07 August were 
mostly near predicted monthly values with some depressions at 
low and high latitudes. Some night spread F and sporadic E observed 
at Darwin 12-21 UT. MUFs in the Australian region are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values 08-10 August with depressions 
possible during local day and early evening.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 305 km/sec  Density:   19.5 p/cc  Temp:    33600 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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