[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 August 21 issued 2330 UT on 08 Aug 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 9 09:30:06 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Aug             10 Aug             11 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              74/11              73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 08 August. The 
visible disc is spotless. There are two numbered regions on the 
visible disc, ARs 2851 (N15W47) and 2852 (S12W04). Solar activity 
is expected to be very low on 09-11 August. No Earth directed 
CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph images. 
On 08 August, the solar wind speed declined from 426 km/s at 
the start of the day and is now around 350 km/s. The total IMF 
(Bt) peaked at 5 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range 
was +2/-4 nT. Small, patchy coronal holes may cause mild enhancements 
in the solar wind over the next two days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11102101
      Cocos Island         1   01002000
      Darwin               3   12102102
      Townsville           4   22102112
      Learmonth            4   11103111
      Alice Springs        2   11002101
      Gingin               3   10102112
      Canberra             2   01002101
      Hobart               3   00003201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     1   00002101
      Casey                5   22202212
      Mawson              15   43211135

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   3323 3232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Aug     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
mostly quiet and at quiet to storm levels in the Antarctic region 
on UT day 08 August. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be quiet to unsettled on 09-11 August. There is a slight chance 
of isolated active conditions on 09-10 August due to weak coronal 
hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on 09-11 August. Mild to moderate depressions in MUFs are likely.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Aug    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values, depressed by
      20% 02-08 UT. Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      17
Aug      25
Sep      28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values
11 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 08 August were 
near predicted monthly values with mild to moderate depressions 
mostly during the day and early evening. MUFs in the Australian 
region on 09-11 August, are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values with depressions to about 20%, mostly during the day and 
early evening.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 411 km/sec  Density:    9.4 p/cc  Temp:   116000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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